It seems everyone is expecting an international victory in tomorrow’s $5.5million Melbourne Cup, with the Aussies given little hope of repelling the European invasion.
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In fact, it’s a New Zealander in Nom Du Jeu being given the best hope of saving the Cup going to Europe for a third time.
Since Vintage Crop won in 1993, European horses have become increasingly effective at Flemington, dominating the placings in recent years, with most of the fancied runners racing well.
However it also remains a fact that only one Euro horse since Vintage Crop – another Dermot Weld trained runner in Media Puzzle – has been able to lift the Cup, despite punters wagering millions on them each year when they Bet On Melbourne Cup
The Cup went the way of Japan two years back before the NZ-bred Efficient gave Australian connections victory last year.
It should be noted though that three-time winner Makybe Diva was bred in Europe, as was the 94 winner Jeune, so the strike rate starts to look a little better when you take that into account!
A recent them has been to have a run in Australia before tackling the Cup. Media Puzzle did that in his year by winner the Geelong Cup, while Delta Blues and Pop Rock both ran in the Caulfield Cup in 2006.
Last year’s runner-up Purple Moon also ran at Caulfield before his Flemington tilt.
To that end, punters are rallying behind Mad Rush, who turned in a superb trial when 4th in the Caulfield Cup. He has the combination of Luca Cumani and Damien Oliver, who teamed up with Purple Moon last year.
Conversely, Septimus has been easy in the market, with punters wary of the so-called ‘best stayer in the world’ tag, which has dogged the likes of Yeats and Double Trigger in their Melbourne Cup Odds tilts.
Let’s look at the main chances (in saddlecloth order):
1 Septimus: Comes off 13L win in the Irish St Leger – a race that Vintage Crop was successful in before his historic 2003 Cup win. Vinnie Roe, a brave 4th and 2nd in his first two Cup tilts, was also a multiple winner of that race. Prepared by Aidan O’Brien, the World’s leading trainer of G1 winners this year.
3 Honolulu: Arrives in career best form and had form behind Purple Moon last year. Quite often it’s the outsider of the big stables that performs well.
5 Nom Du Jeu: Ran a slashing Cup trial when second in the Caulfield Cup and bred to relish this trip. Showers around Melbourne today won’t dim his chances
8 Mad Rush: Should have finished closer in the Caulfield Cup and trainer now knows what it takes to win in Australia. Looks to have had the perfect preparation and coming good at the right time.
12 Bauer: Stablemate of Mad Rush who won the Geelong Cup. Geelong form has stood up in the Melbourne Cup for a few years now and form behind him has already been franked.
18 Profound Beauty: Formlines tie in very well with Septimus and she looks well weighted. Trainer is slightly concerned about the 3200m, but if she runs out the trip, looks a major player here.
22 Alessandro Volta: The outsider of Aidan O’Brien’s trio and comes off a poor last start performance on wet track. But his best form earlier in the year, including a 4th in the Irish Derby, is well up to winning a race like this.
23 Barbaricus: By noted speed sire Lion Hunter, but has shown an ability to stay and his last two runs have been as good as any horse leading into this race. Now looks beautifully weighted and win wouldn’t surprise.
